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Doing the Math

Sadly, it’s looking like Clinton has reversed much of Obama’s “momentum” with the press going into tonight’s primaries. Most predictions are that she’ll win Ohio and Rhode Island handily and at least tie in Texas, leaving only Vermont clearly in the Obama column. However, Obama’s lead in the delegate count is so high at this point, that even if Clinton wins every single primary from now until the convention, it’s extremely unlikely she’ll be able to make up the deficit.

Take a look at Slate’s Delegate Calculator. In order for Clinton to go into the convention with a delegate lead, she’ll need to win every single remaining primary (including heavy Obama states like Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oregon) by 58-42. In other words, it’s not enough for her to win, she has to win huge to even have a chance of squeaking out a slim delegate lead in the end. 

I don’t know about anyone else, but that certainly makes me feel a little better about tonight.